Note. This article is also published in the Mid-Sussex news section.

Sir,

Hocus pocus with housing numbers

A public consultation, ‘Planning for the right homes in the right places: consultation proposals’ to which responses to DCLG must be submitted by 11.45pm, 9 November, has received little publicity in West Sussex. This is surprising given the implications for communities, the countryside and the future of planning in general and Horsham and Mid Sussex in particular.

At first glance readers of the proposals might think the proposals therein are sensible because the stated intent is to use a standardized mathematical formula to determine house-building targets, in order to tackle “the impacts of the housing shortage on ordinary households and communities” by ensuring “that enough land is released, that the best possible use is made of that land, and that local communities have more control over where development goes and what it looks like” and to reduce house prices by building more houses. 

Close scrutiny, however, reveals that the purpose of the proposed formula, described in the document as the ‘justified method’, is to “get a total housing need close to” the “225,000 to 275,000 house per year” that “external commentators suggest” England “needs”.

Unfortunately, how these numbers, which differ in magnitude by 50,000, have been arrived at is not explained. This omission is a fundamental flaw and the ‘method’ is in reality mathematical hocus pocus

Of concern, too, is the failure to recognise and acknowledge that of the 2,035,835 new homes granted permission by local authorities in England over the period 2006/15, only 1,261,350 had been started by 2016 and that this huge shortfall had accumulated because house-builders were hoarding permissions in order to push-up house prices and profits (Civitas: ‘Planning approvals vs Housebuilding activity, 2006-2015’).

All of this matters greatly for Horsham and Mid Sussex Districts because the proposed methodology would result in huge additions to their already excessive targets, and the loss of Horsham District’s five year housing land supply, with negative consequences for Neighbourhood Plans – and for essential infrastructure and services across the county, which is already overstretched.

It is to be hoped that Horsham and Mid Sussex District Councils and Parish Councils will closely scrutinise the consultation proposals and in their representations to DCLG challenge DCLG’s hocus pocus with housing numbers.

Yours faithfully,

Dr R F Smith
Trustee CPRE Sussex