Up until mid-2012 local authorities based housing needs on population estimates derived from 2001 Census updated by data on births, deaths and migration: but we now have 2011 Census estimates, which are much larger than expected. As a result current estimates for mid-2011 population are that England had 452,000 more people around than we thought we had. Also, because many of these are women who will go on to have children, future populations will be higher than previously forecast.
How does this affect different parts of the country: the latest estimates have just been published for each local authority area . They are mostly, but not always, higher than the figures that have been used up to now. The table below shows these latest figures for the different parts of Sussex and the likely increase between 2011 and 2021. This increase varies from district to district.
| Mid-2012 based estimates of population | Mid-2011 Population | Mid-2021 Population | Percentage increase 2011-2021 |
| Brighton and Hove UA | 277.4 | 289.9 | 4.5% |
| East Sussex | 527.2 | 568.3 | 7.8% |
| Eastbourne | 99.3 | 107.3 | 8.1% |
| Hastings | 90.2 | 95.5 | 5.9% |
| Lewes | 97.6 | 109.5 | 12.2% |
| Rother | 90.7 | 99.8 | 10.0% |
| Wealden | 149.4 | 156.2 | 4.6% |
| West Sussex | 808.9 | 891.8 | 10.2% |
| Adur | 61.3 | 67.5 | 10.1% |
| Arun | 149.8 | 167.5 | 11.8% |
| Chichester | 114.0 | 125.0 | 9.6% |
| Crawley | 107.1 | 122.2 | 14.1% |
| Horsham | 131.5 | 143.3 | 9.0% |
| Mid Sussex | 140.2 | 151.1 | 7.8% |
| Worthing | 105.0 | 115.3 | 9.8% |
How does this affect the numbers of households? We do not know yet, as new household projections will not be produced until 2013. They will be different from the 2008-based figures currently being used : in general, more people will mean more households and more households will mean more houses will need to be built: however, this will vary from district to district.
This demonstrates the need to update all local plans for housing growth, so that they reflect the most recent government estimates of population and household size.
Chris Lewis, Chartered Statistician, CPRE Sussex Trustee.
Sources:
Office of National Statistics web site. www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-274527 accessed 10 October 2012.
Household Projections 2008 to 2033, England, DCLG, accessed on 10 October 2012 from www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1780763.pdf
